Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.185380 2.552185 2.959146 3.443804 4.004977 4.634028 5.392431
2025-12-28 1.696425 2.209961 2.841418 3.673417 4.739344 6.057721 7.810922
2026-01-04 1.326017 1.890555 2.645975 3.727135 5.231062 7.245082 10.143105
2026-01-11 1.079670 1.661706 2.498212 3.781707 5.694365 8.431041 12.635100
2026-01-18 0.893371 1.470343 2.352988 3.791893 6.068067 9.516401 15.120408
2026-01-25 0.746713 1.305433 2.209418 3.765247 6.360902 10.497926 17.564706
2026-02-01 0.598629 1.107213 1.974155 3.543297 6.293292 10.886255 19.099845
2026-02-08 0.498745 0.971753 1.817765 3.421557 6.361954 11.487282 21.043726
2026-02-15 0.431641 0.882680 1.726167 3.395105 6.584875 12.367623 23.570924
2026-02-22 0.395473 0.845628 1.722733 3.527802 7.111751 13.846571 27.358323
2026-03-01 0.346905 0.774797 1.642525 3.497877 7.320271 14.756851 30.188199
2026-03-08 0.303592 0.707094 1.557398 3.443365 7.468552 15.563356 32.908813
2026-03-15 0.268480 0.652845 1.495357 3.435467 7.728273 16.657413 36.425779
2026-03-22 0.259065 0.655758 1.557729 3.708345 8.628512 19.186472 43.275539
2026-03-29 0.235636 0.621217 1.531004 3.777848 9.093962 20.864378 48.543514
2026-04-05 0.214518 0.588325 1.502561 3.838448 9.547512 22.574795 54.112274
2026-04-12 0.193272 0.550990 1.457157 3.850603 9.888337 24.075594 59.403847
2026-04-19 0.172770 0.511628 1.400075 3.824175 10.130928 25.379611 64.406862
2026-04-26 0.145950 0.449441 1.273775 3.599056 9.842697 25.385172 66.291757
2026-05-03 0.127150 0.406448 1.191062 3.475525 9.796209 25.971098 69.683149
2026-05-10 0.114425 0.378993 1.146368 3.448692 10.001873 27.214514 74.904905
2026-05-17 0.108649 0.371868 1.158178 3.583423 10.668684 29.729379 83.760360
2026-05-24 0.098143 0.347525 1.115567 3.553044 10.867819 31.036198 89.564934